Curve Fitting in Trading: How to Recognise It in 5 Minutes
A five-minute checklist to recognise curve fitting in any backtest or EA report: equity shape, trade count, parameter precision, costs and out-of-sample.
Walk-Forward Analysis Explained: The Only Backtest That Counts
What walk-forward analysis is, how the train and test windows roll, how to read the results, and why it is the only backtest that predicts anything live.
Case Study: A Gold EA That Passed 5 Years of Walk-Forward Testing and Failed on 11
A trend EA on XAUUSD H4 passed every walk-forward check on 2021–2026. Tested from 2015 it fell to PF 1.07 with a 33% drawdown. What went wrong.