Prop Firm Challenge Calculator
Estimate your real odds of passing a 2-step prop firm challenge (FTMO-style rules by default) from your win rate, reward-to-risk and risk per trade. 10,000 simulated challenges, free, no sign-up.
The numbers above assume every trade is independent and your win rate is exactly right. In the Strategy Lab you can run a walk-forward test of your strategy with costs, then run the Prop-Firm Challenge on its real out-of-sample trades.
How the calculator works
Each simulated challenge is a sequence of trades. A trade wins with your win rate and adds the average win times your risk; otherwise it loses one risk unit. Costs are subtracted from every trade. Risk is a fixed percentage of the initial balance, as most prop firms measure targets and limits on the initial balance. The challenge fails as soon as the day's loss reaches the daily limit or the total loss reaches the maximum loss. It passes when the profit target is reached and the minimum number of trading days is met. Phase 2 starts from a fresh balance. The calculator repeats this 10,000 times and counts the outcomes.
Why risk per trade matters more than you think
The table under the results runs the same strategy at different risk sizes. With very small risk the target takes so long that many challenges never finish. With large risk, a normal losing streak hits the loss limit before the edge has time to show. Somewhere in between is a risk size that maximises the pass rate, and it is usually lower than traders expect. A strategy that passes 90% of the time at 0.5% can drop well below that at 2%, with no change at all in the strategy.
What a strategy with no edge looks like
Set a 50% win rate, an average win of 1R and zero costs. Phase 1 (+10% before −10%) passes about half the time, phase 2 (+5% before −10%) about two thirds of the time, so both phases pass about one in three. That is what pure luck buys you. If your real strategy does not beat that by a clear margin, the challenge fee is a lottery ticket.
Frequently asked questions
Is this the official FTMO calculator?
No. StrategyProof is independent and not affiliated with FTMO or any other firm. The default values follow a typical 2-step challenge (10% target, 5% second phase, 5% daily and 10% maximum loss). Edit them to match the current rules of your firm.
What win rate and reward should I enter?
Use numbers from a test the strategy has never seen: an out-of-sample or walk-forward result with costs included. Numbers from an optimised backtest are almost always too optimistic, and the pass rate will be too.
Does it include trailing drawdown?
Not yet. Limits are measured from the initial balance (maximum loss) and from the start of each day (daily loss), as in most 2-step challenges. Firms with trailing drawdown will usually give lower pass rates than shown.
Why are my results different each time I change a value?
Each run is a Monte Carlo simulation of thousands of random trade sequences. Small differences of a percent or so are normal sampling noise.
Research and education only. Not investment advice. Simulated results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future results.